Red Sox Prediction: Triston Casas

The recent DFA of fellow left-handed hitting first baseman Eric Hosmer confirmed what should have already been clear: Triston Casas is the man at first base. And he should be. From the time Casas made his Major League debut on September 4, 2022, the 22-year-old looked completely at ease with big league pitching. This may seem absurd based on his measly .197 batting average but was clearly evident by his remarkably patient approach. Had he had enough at-bats to qualify, Casas’ 20.0% walk rate would have easily led the majors, an unbelievable achievement for a rookie.

This advanced approach at the plate gives Casas a high floor in the 2023 season. There might be some growing pains, and there may be some swing-and-miss in his game, but his ability to distinguish balls from strikes will likely prevent him from enduring long slumps. The bigger question is how much power he will bring to a lineup that desperately needs it. At 6’4, 252 pounds, it’s easy to see how Casas generates so much pop, and he wows teammates and fans alike with his all-field power. The left-handed hitters who have the most success at Fenway are those who can use the Green Monster to their advantage, and with three of his five homers going to left field, Casas showed potential of doing just that.

Potential. That’s the buzz word with Casas. It’s easy to see Casas having a Anthony-Rizzo like career: A .270-.280 batting average, a high on-base percentage, and around 30 home runs a year. But how soon can he get there? The Red Sox are banking on that ceiling being reached sooner rather than later, given that he will likely be slotting into the fifth or sixth spot in the batting order and one of the few hitters who can really strike fear in the opposing pitcher.

As good as Casas may look at times, it’s easy to forget that he is essentially just a kid, with less than 100 at-bats under his belt. There will be ups-and-downs, particularly against left-handers, against whom he went 4-19 without an extra-base against during his September cup of coffee. Yet there have been signs that this is a really special hitter, particularly during his last thirteen games in which he slashed .316/.490/.579 with three home runs. No, he’s not going to be an MVP candidate right away, but Casas is going to show everyone why the Red Sox have put so much faith in him.

Stat Predictions: .254/.363/.436 26 HR 81 RBI 2.2 WAR

Red Sox Prediction: Masataka Yoshida

Trying to project Masataka Yoshida’s first big-league season is a fool’s errand. He has either been described as the “Japanese Juan Soto” or a fourth outfielder, depending on who you ask. He’s either “the best Japanese hitter since Ichiro Suzuki” or not good enough to rank in Keith Law’s top 50 free agents. He’s a player who the Red Sox tracked for several years and aggressively signed on the first day he was officially posted. He’s a player who many rival executives view was worth less than half of the contract he ultimately received. It’s always difficult to predict how foreign-born players will adjust to the big leagues, but Yoshida’s unique profile has made said projection downright impossible.

The one consensus among evaluators is that Yoshida can hit. Like, really, really hit. His bat-to-ball skills are truly otherworldly, with Nippon Professional League stats almost too good to believe. Over the last three seasons, Yoshida has walked 213 times and struck out just 97 times. That kind of skill will play in any league, and with a batting average nearly .300 against fastballs 95 miles per hour or above, it’s highly unlikely he will be overmatched by MLB pitching.

Yoshida also generates more power than you would expect from a 5’9 hitter, but it stands to question how that power will translate to the big leagues. There have been a number of Japanese hitters who have seen their power disappear upon their arrival in the United States, in large part due to the larger ballparks and better pitching. The most notable example is Shogo Akiyama, who failed to hit a single home run in two seasons with the Reds after hitting 69 in his final three years in Japan.

The Red Sox, however, have expressed optimism that Yoshida will be able to bring some of his 20+ home run power to America due to the compactness of his swing. Indeed, Yoshida has a more American-style swing as opposed to Akiyama, who can best be described as a slap hitter. He may never top the 29 home runs he totaled in 2016, but somewhere in the 10-15 range seems reasonable this year.

By all accounts, Yoshida is a below-average fielder and has little-to-no speed. And while the Red Sox will be able to mask those deficiencies by playing him in the front of the Monster, it seems to be a given that Yoshida will make minimal contributions in those two areas. Yet the Red Sox didn’t pay the Japanese import to be the second coming of Ricky Henderson: They paid him to be one of the best leadoff hitters in the game. With the newly implemented shift ban coming to the MLB in 2023, the ability to put the ball in play is more important than it has been in years, and Yoshida should be able to take full advantage.

Stat Predictions: 147 games .288/.371/.436 14 HR 52 RBI 2.2 WAR

Why Red Sox fans have every right to be upset with team's leadership

I attended my first Red Sox game on August 2, 2009. It was a rainy day at Camden Yards in Baltimore, but seven-year-old me was just happy I didn’t have to watch John Smoltz pitch (The over-the-hill future Hall of Famer had taken the hill the day before). The unpredictable Clay Buchholz was the one pitching, and though he allowed six runs in just four innings, rookie Josh Reddick and current Twins manager Rocco Baldelli hit homers to spur an 18-10 Red Sox win.

My point here is that I’ve been watching this team for a long time. Yes, there are probably old-timers who would scoff at that notion, but for the majority of my now-adult life, I have lived and died with the success of the Old Towne Team. I’ve experienced the highest of highs, such as the improbable 2013 World Series run and the sheer dominance of the 2018 team, and the lowest of lows, such as the 2011 collapse, five last-place finishes in 12 seasons, and yes, of course, the Pablo Sandoval era.

Throughout all the ups-and-downs, however, I never felt that the organization didn’t prioritize winning. After a 71-91 2014 season, they threw big money at Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. After another last place finish in 2015, they threw even more money at David Price and traded for Craig Kimbrel. Even if those moves didn’t always work, they always were indicative of an ownership and management that was committed to doing whatever possible to win a championship.

That’s not the case anymore. I may have disagreed with some of Ben Cherington’s moves, but he had a plan and a vision. He built the farm system and held onto it despite constant trade offers from teams looking to offload expensive veterans. He also, of course, had one of the most successful singular offseason in baseball history, building seemingly from scratch the 2013 World Series championship ballclub.

His successor, Dave Dombrowski, had a completely different philosophy, but like Cherington, he had a plan, and he was going to stick to it. “Dealer Dave” was going to get his guy, no matter the cost. He blew the Cardinals offer out of the water to get ace David Price, arguably the MVP of the 2018 postseason run. He targeted and acquired DH J.D Martinez, who filled the void David Ortiz left in the middle of the lineup. He parted with top prospects to get Craig Kimbrel and Chris Sale, two superstars in their prime who played key roles in the aforementioned championship run.

Then there’s Chaim Bloom. Look, I have been a fan of the many of the moves Bloom has made. The Kiké Hernandez signing was a stroke of genius, as was selecting Garrett Whitlock in the Rule 5 draft. He deserves immense credit for building that 2021 playoff team, on the backs of those off-season acquisitions and mid-season ones like Kyle Schwarber. I’ve even been a fan of many of his moves this offseason. Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin were, in my opinion, the second and third best relievers on the market, and I think the Masataka Yoshida and Justin Turner signings will drastically improve the consistency and quality of at bats of the Red Sox lineup.

Yet with all the good, there have also been mistakes. So, so many mistakes. Why did he sell Christian Vazquez at the trade deadline yet still go over the luxury tax? Why did he trade Hunter Renfroe for Jackie Bradley Jr. when everyone and their mom knew that Bradley couldn’t hit anymore? And, most of all, why were the returns for the Andrew Benintendi and Mookie Betts trade so measly?

Those mistakes, however, aren’t my main point of contention with the Chaim Bloom era. After all, every good GM (or chief baseball offer) makes mistakes. Hell, Theo Epstein signed Carl Crawford to a seven-year deal. My problem with Chaim Bloom is that he insults the intelligence of the Red Sox fanbase. As I’ve mentioned in my last post, it was understandable why they let Xander Bogaerts walk. He’s now on the wrong side of 30, had declining batted ball metrics, and was blocking the path of top prospect Marcelo Mayer. I didn’t like it, but I got it.

What is unacceptable is how Bloom treated both the Red Sox fan base and their superstar. A 4 year/$90 million deal is insulting to a player who has given his heart and soul to the city and was a leader both on the field and off the field. That offer was so below market value that Bogaerts had every right to feel like it was, as he reportedly put it, a “slap in the face.” Then Bloom had the audacity to spend all fall saying how Bogaerts was “priority A” and go on and on about how important he was to the team while meanwhile pursing Yoshida, a player who has never taken an at-bat in the big leagues, more aggressively than the face of the franchise. This is not Tampa Bay. The words of the man pulling the strings actually matter. Bloom may say he understands the fanbase, but his actions have insulted their intelligence and disrespected their passion.

Fortunately for Bloom and co., there is still one more franchise player to make things right with. The same excuses that you can make for Bogaerts can not be made for Rafael Devers. Devers is a generational hitter in his prime whose best days are ahead of him, not behind him. There is no plan B. Losing Devers would be an absolute catastrophe for the franchise far beyond the Betts and Bogaerts departures.

I’ve put the Red Sox owners on the backburner so far in this article for a couple of reasons. The first is that they have done an immeasurable service to Red Sox fans in bringing not one, not two, but four championships in the last 20 years. They have invested an enormous amount of resources into the club, and have hired the people (i.e. Theo Epstein) who made the moves to completely change the complexion of the Red Sox franchise.

Since that last championship, however, the owners have seemingly disappeared. We have not heard from them since the Mookie Betts trade, which was nearly three years ago at this point. We have no idea how involved they are with the team or how much influence they have over free agent negotiations. However, they were the ones who fired Dombrowski and brought in Bloom, which signaled a clear change in organizational philosophy.

That organizational philosophy includes the notion that teams should not hand out ten+ year contract. That is stupid. You need star players to win in this league, and the only way to hang on to them, after their seven years of service time are up, is to give them a long-term contract. Without long-term contracts, a team is just an identity-less collection of unproven young players and over-the-hill veterans brought in in free agency, which is what the Red Sox are in the danger of becoming.

The Red Sox may say “what Devers is asking for doesn’t fit our model.” Literally nobody cares. In a Red Sox Stats poll, 99.7% of respondents advocated for signing him. Is anyone going to care if a 35-year-old Devers doesn’t exactly meet the value of his contract? No! There has to be a human element to baseball operations. A long-term Devers contract would not only ensure a generational hitter is a Red Sock for life, but placate a furious fanbase, show other potential free agents you are committed to winning, and provide a leader for the next decade of Red Sox baseball. Signing Devers won’t erase the losses of Bogaerts and Betts, but it will, at the very least, ease the pain. It will show that the franchise has a plan, a purpose, a sense of direction. It will show the Red Sox are serious about competing year in and year out, which is what Bloom and Kennedy always claim.

Now let’s talk about the frightening alternative: What if Devers enters Opening Day without an extension? From a Bloom perspective, he should already be feeling the heat. He claimed, on the record, that the Red Sox are going to add a starting pitcher they would be “proud to start in a playoff game.” They have failed to do so. He claimed, on the record, that the Red Sox were going to be “very, very aggressive” on the trade market. They have failed to add even one impact player through trade. Obviously, things can change, but if he fails to follow through on either of those promises, he will be branded a liar and a fool, and rightfully so.

That’s not to mention the free agents that he already brought. What if Yoshida simply can’t hit major league pitching? What if the 38-year-old Turner shows his age? What if the similarly elder Jensen and Martin fail to fix the bullpen issues? If the Red Sox quickly fall out of contention, I would not be surprised if Bloom is gone before the end of the season.

A failure to sign Devers, however, should and would not just cost Bloom his job, but make him a villain in Red Sox lore. Imagine the Red Sox finish in last place again, and the Red Sox lose their third franchise cornerstone in the last four years. Bloom will become an absolutely infamous figure in Boston, up there with the likes of Harry Frazee and Grady Little.

Look, I’m not a huge fan of public protests, but if the Red Sox don’t sign Devers before spring training, there is only one option: Don’t buy tickets. Don’t attend games. Don’t spend any money on the team. The Red Sox continue to raise ticket prices to the point where seeing a Red Sox game is more costly than any other team in baseball. Why should you spend your hard-earned money on seeing a team that is seemingly indifferent then putting its best product on the field?

I hope you all understand how much that hurts to write. Fenway Park is one of my absolute favorite places on the planet. It also hurts because I actually think the Red Sox have a chance to exceed expectations next year. This team is drastically deeper than it was last year, when Travis Shaw, Jonathan Arauz and Jackie Bradley Jr. were on the opening day roster. Most of the 2023 roster was not a part of last year's abomination, whether because they were on another team, spent most of the year in the minors, or were injured for large chunks of the season. All of the “pundits” may pick the Red Sox to finish last, but I have no doubt this team is going to play competitive baseball.

At a certain point, however, enough is enough. I am extremely concerned about the future of this team, whether it be a Chief Baseball Officer who takes the passion and knowledge of the fans for granted or owners who seem content with mediocrity year in and year out. For the amount of time, energy and money Red Sox fans give towards this team, that is simply unacceptable. If the Red Sox fail to extend Devers by spring training, it is up to us fans to force management's hand.