Red Sox Prediction: Ryan Brasier

This dude just keeps coming back. There are three players remaining from the 2018 World Series championship team, and while Chris Sale and Rafael Devers and Matt Barnes are both former All-Stars who have served critical roles on the Red Sox for years, Ryan Brasier hasn’t so much be a key contributor to this era of Red Sox baseball as much as he has survived each year’s roster cutdown. Somehow, Brasier is about to enter his sixth year with the team, which is somehow the exact same time Mookie Betts spent in Boston. So for this player preview, we are going to try to answer one simple question: What do the Red Sox see in Ryan Brasier?

After extensive research, I am unable to draw a conclusion to that question. The Red Sox may point to his slider, which held batters to a .170 batting average in 2022, but that pitch is offset by an almost-comically hittable fastball. Batters obliterated the pitch to the tune of a .320 average and .602 slugging percentage last year. For context, Paul Goldschmidt won MVP last year with a .317 batting average and .587 slugging percentage last year. So, it doesn’t really matter how good your slider is if your fastball turns every hitter into MVP winner.

Another problem for Brasier is his absolute inability to get left-handers out. Opposite side hitters slashed .306/.350/.556 off him last year, and over his career, Brasier has allowed an .850 OPS to lefties. It makes sense why Brasier is so ineffective: He has only two pitches, with one being the aforementioned batting-practice fastball, and sliders are generally more effective breaking away from a hitter, as they do versus righties, than they are breaking in. Unfortunately for Brasier, lefties make up a not insignificant demographic of big-league hitters, and with the three-batter minimum still being in place, he’s going to have to face them at some point.

At this point, we should know better than to predict Brasier to be jettisoned during the 2023 season. He throws strikes, can touch the upper-90s in his fastball, and has a decent breaking ball. In other words, he’s the kind of reliever you can find at the local dollar store. Like every season before this, he’ll have some competent moments, some flashes of “hey, maybe he’s not so bad” and some absolute blow-ups. Hoping for 2023 to finally be the year Brasier puts it together is too much to ask: Let’s just hope he isn’t pitching too many meaningful innings.

Stat Predictions: 5.21 ERA 43 IP 2.7 BB/9 8.8 K/9

Red Sox Prediction: Emmanuel Valdez

If there is one borderline roster player I am interested in keeping tabs on early in this spring and into the regular season, it’s Emmanuel Valdez. Few players in the system can match his raw offensive upside. In just 128 games between the Red Sox and Astros systems, Valdez launched 28 home runs, drove in 107 RBIs, and posted a solid .296/.376/.542 slashline. To be fair, most of this damage was done in Double-A Corpus Christi, but Valdez still posted an OPS over .900 with Houston’s Triple-A club, and has 17 extra-base hits in 44 games after landing in Worcester.

Unlike some of the best offensive prospects in the Red Sox system, Valdez is ready to contribute right now. He’s already 24 years old and has shown the necessary strides you look for in a young hitter. He raised his average by over 40 points from 2021, cut down on his strikeout rate, and increased his walk rate. From an offensive standpoint, there is little Valdez has to prove offensively in the minor leagues.

You may have noticed that I made sure to clarify that Valdez has little to prove offensively. Defensively, Valdez has a lot to work on. Soxprospects describes his defense as “can make the average play,” which is not exactly what you want to hear. Despite playing primarily second and third in the minor leagues, they project that Valdez will eventually have to move to left field or first base which, besides being less than ideal for someone who is 5’9, will put even more pressure on his bat.

It should tell you then just how good Valdez’s bat is that he is even being considered for a big-league spot. The Red Sox, whether intentionally or not, did not acquire a left-handed bench bat this offseason, which opens the door for Valdez, who hit .996 against righties last season. If the Red Sox struggle offensively to start the season, I expect the Red Sox to call up Valdez and worry about the defense later.

Stats: .263/.324/.440 61 G 4 HR 22 RBI 0.1 WAR

Red Sox Prediction: Garrett Whitlock

I think people forget just how good Whitlock was prior to his season-altering and ultimately season-ending hip injury. Despite the constant chaos of shuffling back and forth between the bullpen and rotation, Whitlock pounded the strike zone even better than he did during his phenomenal rookie season, becoming downright robotic in his ability to throw strikes. It’s not easy to hit a guy who ranks in the 99th percentile in extension and refuses to make a bad pitch, and batters looked as flummoxed by the 6-5 right-hander as they did in 2021.

At some points last season, however, it seemed like the Red Sox management were trying to sabotage their most effective pitcher. After allowing just one run over his first 10 innings out of the bullpen, a team desperate for any effective starting pitching moved Whitlock to the rotation. Without an offseason and spring training to build himself up as a starter, the results were entirely predictable: A mediocre 4.15 ERA and a hip injury that knocked Whitlock out for over a month. Whitlock returned to the bullpen and, surprise surprise, had a 1.59 ERA over his next 11 relief appearances before running out of gas and ultimately succumbing to the same hip injury.

It’s hard to bungle the handling of a young pitcher any more than the Red Sox did with Whitlock, but there is no secret about what his role will be this year. With three new arms added to the bullpen, Whitlock will have a spot in the starting rotation this year, and a whole offseason to build himself up. Whitlock spent his minor league career as a starter, and as dominant as he has been in the bullpen, it’s been pretty clear that that is where his future lies. In fact, it was somewhat jarring to see a pitcher with such a diverse and precise pitch mix in the bullpen, and before a hip injury derailed a season, Whitlock showed an ability to navigate a lineup multiple times. His plus-plus changeup allows him to hold lefties to a .195/.215/.344 slash line, while his sinker/slider combination gives him the ability to carve up right-handers with almost equal precision.

The big question with Whitlock is whether he will handle a traditional starter’s workload. He hasn’t topped 120 innings since 2018, which was the only time in his professional career he threw even 100 innings. Since that season, Whitlock has undergone Tommy John surgery and had a serious hip injury, so it stands to reason that the Red Sox will handle him with kid gloves. Still, all the makings of a frontline pitcher are there, and if the Red Sox are in contention down the stretch, you can expect the training wheels to come off.

Stat Predictions: 10-6 3.23 ERA 148 IP 2.4 BB/9 9.1 K.9