Red Sox Prediction: Zack Kelly

Zack Kelly is just one of those guys you root for. An undrafted free agent out of Division II Newberry College, Kelly bounced around the minor leagues before succumbing to Tommy John Surgery in 2020. The Red Sox saw something in him to sign him as a minor league free agent that winter, and, after almost two years of stellar performance in the higher minors, gave him the call to the majors. It may have just been a month of meaningless baseball, but Kelly impressed, pitching to a 3.95 ERA with an excellent walk rate.

A lot of Red Sox fans are high on Kelly and are understandably rooting for him to make the Opening Day roster, but I just don’t see a place for him on this current Red Sox team barring injury. He has a very good changeup, but according to Soxprospects, he has below-average command of his fastball, and his third pitch, a cutter/slider hybrid, only has the potential to be average. He keeps the ball on the ground but struggles to generate swings-and-misses (7.2 K/9), which puts a limit on his ceiling. The margin for error is extremely small with Kelly, especially considering he has had his struggles with control in the minors, and the upside only appears to be a sixth or seventh inning arm.

Inning for inning, Kelly is probably better than Kutter Crawford, but considering Crawford has multi-inning potential, he’ll probably get the first crack at the majors. Kelly should be one of the first options when the inevitable injury bug bites, although it likely won’t be in any sort of high-leverage role given how the Red Sox have built up their relief core this offseason. On the other hand, Kelly wasn’t expected to get this far, so maybe he shocks everyone again and establishes himself as a key relief arm out of nowhere a la 2022 John Schrieber. I’m sure we’d all be fine with that.

Predictions: 4.22 ERA 26 IP 3.4 BB/9 7.8 K/9

Red Sox Prediction: Jarren Duran

Oh boy, where to begin? In many ways, Jarren Duran’s up-and-down campaign perfectly encapsulated the topsy-turvy roller-coaster that was the 2022 Red Sox. After an unsuccessful cup-of-coffee in 2021 and a one-game cameo in May, Duran got the call to the show for good in early June following a torrid start in Worcester. Before long, Duran found himself in leadoff spot, and over his first month in Boston, he slashed .329/.380/.507 and converted on 5 of his 6 stolen bases. It’s no coincidence that Duran hot streak coincided with the Red Sox’s best month of the season, as his on-base skills and speed perfectly set the table for the sluggers behind him.

Then, as quickly as Duran put himself on the map, it all fell apart. His poor outfield routes began to get exposed, most infamously in an inside-the-park grand slam that Duran lost in the lights in a 28-5 loss to the Blue Jays. Duran’s offense dropped off as well, as he hit just .158/.223/.268 from July 7 through the end of the season. The likely final straw was when he argued with fans after a series of misplays in Kansas City. Duran would last just three more weeks with the big league club before getting optioned at the end of August.

When you throw out all the flash and the controversy, Duran is worthy of perhaps the most boring label you can give a baseball player: Fourth outfielder. There is no doubt the guy can fly, given that he ranked in the 93rd percentile in sprint speed and has converted on 9 of his 11 MLB stolen base attempts. He also grades out at above average in outfield jump and arm strength, indicating that he can handle a corner outfield position even if he is likely in-over- his head in centerfield.

The problem is, however, that he doesn’t get on-base enough to maximize his stolen base ability and doesn’t hit well enough to warrant every day at-bats at a corner spot. We now have 91 big-league games to evaluate Duran, and the results are a .219/.269/.353 slash line with just five home runs, 18 walks and 103 strikeouts. He’s hit 26 home runs in 128 games in Triple-A, but the power just hasn’t translated at all to the big leagues, as pitchers just keep pounded him with breaking and off-speed stuff. The one positive is that he cut his strikeout rate and increased his walk rate from 2021 to 2022, but at 28.3% and 6.3% respectively, those numbers are still well below-average.

Another problem is that there isn’t a clear spot for Duran on the current MLB roster. They already have two left-handed hitting outfielders in Masataka Yoshida and Alex Verdugo, not to mention Ramiel Tapia in Triple-A and Rob Refsynder provides way more value in the fourth outfielder spot. In all likelihood, Duran will continue to shuttle between Worcester in Boston, providing a little speed, a little excitement, and not much else.

Stat Predictions: .234/.296/.381 88 games 4 HR 22 RBI 6-8 SB 0.1 WAR

Red Sox Prediction: Bobby Dalbec

Of all the individual disappointments in the 2022 Red Sox season, this may be the biggest. I was all in Bobby Dalbec entering last season, mainly due to the terrific .275/.336/.580 slashline he posted after June 10, 2021. He had the look of a young player who was beginning to figure it out, and that he built enough of an understanding of the strike zone to let his plus-power play. A 30 home-run season in 2022 seemed like a baseline, with possible All-Star upside.

Not only did Dalbec not reach those lofty expectations, he took a drastic step backwards. He began the season in a 12-for-82 rut and did not hit his second home run until May 28 despite playing nearly every day. There were some signs of life, such as a .271/.343/.458 stretch from May 26 to July 9, but another slump in August earned Dalbec a demotion to Triple-A that would have been unthinkable at the beginning of the season.

It’s almost unfathomable how a player who looked like he was figuring out big-league pitching could take such a drastic step back. Just look at the falloff in some of the underlying numbers:

Average Exit Velocity

• 2021: 92.4

• 2022: 90.3

Expected Batting Average

• 2021: .236

• 2022: .216

Expected Slugging

• 2021: .522

• 2022: .379

Barrel Percentage

• 2021: 20.2%

• 2022: 11.8%

I always say that progress for prospects and young major leaguers isn’t always linear, but rarely does it take a complete 180 like this. There is still enough power where you can’t completely give up on him (even in 2022, he still ranked in the top quarter of all hitters in average exit velocity) but he no longer looks like an everyday player. A career .240/.348/.406 hitter against left-handed pitchers, Dalbec will likely begin the season as a platoon option for Triston Casas and a backup option for Rafael Devers, because for someone who is 6’4, 227, Dalbec is surprisingly athletic and versatile. I’m going to be an optimist and say he takes a small step forward from last season, considering he was substantially better from June on, but there’s just too much swing-and-miss in his game and too little of an approach to expect anything more than a volatile platoon player.

Stat Predictions: .226/.291/.428 103 games 11 HR 37 RBI -0.1 WAR