Red Sox Prediction: Christian Arroyo

For the first time in his major league career, Christian Arroyo is going to get near-everyday at-bats, and it’s hard to say he doesn’t deserve it. The former top prospect has finally found a footing in Boston after short stints in San Francisco, Tampa Bay, and Cleveland, and has proved he is a major league caliber hitter. In 144 games spanning two seasons, Arroyo has slashed .277/.323/.426, good for a 103 OPS+, and has homered 12 times.

You may be saying to yourself “wait a second. 144 games is quite a small amount of games to be playing over two seasons”, and there lies the biggest issue with Arroyo: He just can’t stay healthy. Over his tenure in Boston, he has missed time with a left hand contusion, a right knee contusion, a left hamstring strain, two severe cases of Covid, and a groin strain. Some of these have just been bad luck, but you have to wonder if all those lower body injuries are going to take a toll on the middle infielder.

It’s also worth mentioning that even when Arroyo is healthy, he’s a poor defender. He ranked in the 10th percentile in Outs Above Average, and while that number is inflated by some truly terrible outfield play, he has a career -2 OAA at second base. That certainly isn’t unplayable, but it’s not what you’re looking for when a guy is giving you just average offensive production, and certainly not what you’re looking for when your two most promising starters are sinkerballers.

The Adalberto Mondesi trade will at least take some of the pressure of Arroyo, assuming Mondesi will overcome his own lengthy injury history, but it still makes me a little uneasy to give a starting role to a guy whose never played more than 100 games in a single season. This isn’t to say Arroyo isn’t a good player: Anyone with that kind of versatility who hits .296 against lefties is more than worthy of a spot on a major league roster. The bat will play. The bigger question is: Will Arroyo?

Stat Predictions: 115 games .271/.324/.436 9 HR 50 RBI 1.2 WAR

Red Sox Prediction: Chris Martin

One of the major areas of weakness for the 2022 Red Sox- and there were quite a few- was an inability to throw strikes. They ranked 20th in the majors with 526 walks, and fans who watched Hirokazu Sawamura, Jake Diekman and Austin Davis create their own personal merry-go-round on the bases know that that problem was especially bad in the bullpen. Only four ‘pens topped the Red Sox 268 free passes, and by the end of the season, John Schreiber was really the only reliever Alex Cora could bring in who could consistently throw strikes.

Fortunately, there is good reason to believe that the bullpen will attack the strike zone much more aggressively in 2023. Gone are many of the main culprits of the 2022 Walk-A-Thon, including Sawamura, Diekman and Davis, and their replacements have proven to be much more effective at throwing strikes. We already went over Kenley Jansen, but even his above-average control pales in comparison to fellow acquisition Chris Martin. Over his seven-year career, Martin has walked a remarkable 1.2 BB/9, and is somehow even getting better with age. His 0.8 BB/9 was the best in baseball last year, and somehow walked only one batted in 24.2 innings upon a midseason trade with the Cubs.

Unlike most control artists, Martin also generates tons of swing-and-misses. His strikeout rate ranked in the 94th percentile, while his whiff rate is also above-average. He relies heavily on a fastball-cutter-sinker combination, each of which actually increased in velocity 2022, and mixes in a splitter, slider and curveball to keep hitters honest. His fastball in particular is downright unhittable, holding batters to a .146 average and 30.1 whiff percentage.

I know I just threw a lot of numbers at you, but here’s the point: Chris Martin is a wizard. Most baseball evaluators would agree that the two most important skills a pitcher can have is an ability to generate strikeouts and an ability to limit walks, as both take luck and defense out of the equation, and Martin is among the league’s best at both of them. Yes, Martin is now 37, but he has been mostly healthy for the last five seasons, and his stuff has shown no signs of slowing down. Though Jansen will rightfully get most of the attention as the team’s closer, Martin will completely transform the Red Sox bullpen.

Stat Prediction: 2.67 ERA 62 IP 1.7 BB/9 10.9 K/9

Red Sox Prediction: Corey Kluber

In their seemingly never-ending quest to acquire every 2017 All-Star, the Red Sox finally came to terms on a one-year deal with two-time Cy Young award winner Corey Kluber after years of reported mutual interest. After three straight injury-plagued seasons, the 36-year-old finally stayed healthy in 2022 and the results were… fine? A 4.34 ERA is nowhere near where he was at his peak, but he took the ball every fifth day and threw strikes, which is a lot more than most pitchers can stay.

At this point, there’s no mystery about what kind of pitcher Kluber is or how he is going to attack hitters. It’s the same five pitch-mix that he's always had: He throws three types of fastballs- cutter, sinker, and four-seam- while using his curveball and changeup to generate swings-and-misses. Yet while the Kluber of old used those pitches to simply overwhelm hitters, the older, savvier Kluber leaned on a 96th percentile chase rate to induce weak contact.

You could also make the argument that Kluber’s control is even better than it was during his prime. His 1.2 BB/9 was the best mark of his career and the third time he’s led the league in that category. In fact, this offseason, the Red Sox have acquired the starter with the lowest walk rate (Kluber) and the reliever with lowest walk rate (Chris Martin), the result of an organizational philosophy to throw better and more consistent strikes.

Unlike Martin, however, Kluber is going to rely heavily on his infield defense with his high ground ball percentage and low strikeout rate. It’s difficult to get excited about pitchers like Kluber, but I don’t think any fan is going to arrive at Fenway Park and be upset to see Kluber is the starting pitcher. He knows how to pitch, he knows how to manipulate hitters, and, most importantly, he knows how to win. In a 162-game season, having those types of guys is incredibly valuable.

Stats: 10-9 4.41 ERA 162 IP 1.7 BB/9 7.0 K/9