Red Sox Prediction: Brayan Bello

This is the guy. This one, right here. If the Red Sox want to have any chance of surprising people, they are going to need a breakout season from this 24-year-old. There’s no question the stuff is there. Brayan Bello might have the most exciting scouting reports of any Red Sox prospect this century, the kind of jaw-dropping wiffle balls that make you rewind spring training videos just to make sure you saw it right. Not many guys can pair a upper 90’s sinker with a Bugs-Bunny changeup that induces whiffs over 44% of the time.

Like practically all young pitchers, Bello is a little rough around the edges. His sinker was absolutely pummeled to the tune of .402 opponents' batting average, which speaks to poor command. His walk rate was a little higher than you would like it at 4.2 per nine innings, but that’s not disastrous for a rookie.

What is really going to make or break Bello’s season, and determine whether he can take that next step, is how he is able to fare when he goes through a lineup multiple times, because the results last year were not pretty.

1st time through the order: .267/.336/.317

2nd time through the order: .350/.427/.467

3rd time through the order: .362/.422/.500

Again, this is not unheard of for a young pitcher with only two dependable pitches, but it’s hard to pencil in Bello as a dependable starter when he is getting murdered every time he goes through an order multiple times. To be a major-league starter, having one dominant pitch is not going enough, as hitters clearly aren’t fooled when they see the changeup multiple times. The obvious solution to this would be better fastball command and more confidence in his slider, but that kind of growth is not going to happen overnight.

In a sense, Bello is the anti-Kluber. He is going to be incredibly fun to watch, and he’s going to have some flashes of true brilliance. On the other hand, there are going to be growing pains, there are going to be some blowups, and there are going to be some times where we as fans are going to throw our hands up in their air and shake our heads. There’s a lot of possibilities at play here, but a reasonable expectation is probably a mid-to-back end starter with higher upside at the end of the season.

Stat Predictions: 8-8 4.25 ERA 146 IP 3.9 BB/9 8.5 K/9

Red Sox Prediction: Kutter Crawford

I’m not going to go overboard on this one. In previous player previews, I have dived deep into the numbers to evaluate what has gone right or wrong for said player and what we can project moving forward. That’s my job as a local baseball nerd. I’m trying to create expectations and find optimism for the upcoming baseball season.

With Kutter Crawford, however, there is no point. There is no secret weapon that is going to magically unlock his potential. None of his pitches are very good. He doesn’t strike out or walk batters at an elite clip. He had an ERA over 5 as both a starter and reliever. Lefties own him, and righties aren’t scared of him. He’s a slightly better option than local batting practice pitcher Josh Winckowski and recently DFA’d Connor Seabold, but not by much.

What Crawford has going for him is that he is a pitcher with average strikeout and walk rates with experience as both a starter and reliever. Because of that, he’s a pretty good bet to nail down that 26th spot on the Red Sox roster. So when the Red Sox are losing to the Blue Jays 8-2 on a rainy Tuesday night in June, you’ll likely be seeing Kutter Crawford jog in from the home bullpen. He’ll give up a couple of hits, a walk, and a run or two, but it’s not like it makes a difference anyway. But someone has to pitch those innings.

Season Prediction: 5.23 ERA 98 IP 3.2 BB/9 8.6 K/9

Red Sox Prediction: Tanner Houck

What to do with Tanner Houck? In many ways, it’s a tremendous problem to have: A lot of teams would love to have a controllable young pitcher who can be either a mid-rotation starter or a late-inning reliever, depending on what your team needs. With the Red Sox addressing their bullpen and moving Whitlock to the rotation to join the returning Sale and Paxton, Houck is left in limbo right now. Therefore, today, we’re going to take a look at what role Houck should have moving forward and what a reasonable 2023 projection looks like for the big right-hander.

Over the last three seasons, we have collected 53 games and 129 innings of data on Tanner Houck, and the results are clear: He is a really good pitcher. He has a fantastic 3.02 ERA, has struck out over 10 batters per nine innings, and has a digestible 3.2 BB/9. His slider is legitimately disgusting, holding batters to a .159 batting average and 37.3% whiff percentage. That slider has proved especially lethal against righties, as Houck held same-side hitters to a .205/.269/.227 slashline in large part due to his breaking ball.

I have confidence that Houck can succeed as a starter and a reliever, but there are a few reasons why I think he is more suited to a relief role. For one, his lack of a third pitch leads to a pretty drastic platoon split:

Vs Righties: .205/.269/.227

Vs Lefties: .259/.376/.400

In a relief role, Alex Cora can mitigate this deficiency by using Houck in situations where the opposing lineup has right-handed batters due up. Yet if Houck is used as a starter, an opposing manager can stack his lineup with left-handed hitters and feel pretty good about his chances.

Another reason Houck should be used as a reliever is his struggles to work deep into games. Houck holds batters to a .504 OPS the first time through the order, but that increases to .647 the second time through and balloons to 1.017 the third time up. In addition, Houck has never topped 100 pitches in any of his MLB appearances and rarely tops even 75 pitches, meaning that, with his lack of control, he is likely to only pitch about five innings a start. If you can’t face a lineup a third time, can’t work deep into games, and can’t get lefties out, you probably shouldn’t be a starter.

With the recent trade of Matt Barnes, it looks like the Red Sox agree with me and will use Houck in a long or middle relief role. It was a role Houck succeeded in last year, and with the Red Sox rotations filled with guys either with massive injury risks or innings limit, Houck can be the perfect bridge from said starters to the reworked back end of the bullpen. I fully expect Houck to play a critical role on this team.

Stats: 3.46 ERA 82 IP 3.6 BB/9 10.3 K/9