Red Sox Predictions: Reese Mcguire

If there’s one thing, we know about Resse Mcguire, it’s that the Red Sox management absolutely loves him. They felt comfortable enough in his abilities to trade fan-favorite Christian Vazquez at the trade deadline and bring in him to start the majority of the games down the stretch. They had enough confidence in him to make no attempt to re-sign Vazquez, or any other premier free agent catcher, this offseason and let him handle the majority of the backstop duties in 2023. That's a pretty impressive feat for a guy who made only 141 appearances in four seasons entering 2022.

So what do the Red Sox love about him? To be honest, it’s hard to say. I’m definitely more of a fan of his defense than his offense, because even though Statcast has him around average as a framer and a thrower, Fangraphs has him at 23.1 defensive runs above average over the last two seasons, which is pretty remarkable considering he’s only played 167 games over those seasons. Defensive metrics are always a little wonky, but I think it’s fair to say that Mcguire is an average to above-average defender, and all indications are that pitchers like throwing to him. Given the state of catcher offense around the majors and the vast impact a catcher can make on a pitching staff, being a plus defender should earn Mcguire at-bats no matter how productive his offense is.

That offense, however, is the biggest point of controversy in Mcguire’s game. A career .248/.297/.390 hitter in 141 games over four seasons entering 2022, Mcguire posted a surprising .337/.377/.500 slash line over 36 games with the Red Sox. Old-school fans love him because of his all-field approach and high batting average. I’m…. a little more skeptical. There is nothing in his advanced metrics to suggest that success is sustainable. His expected batting average of .233 and slugging percentage of .326 (based on his quality of contact) were well below his season totals. Given that he doesn’t walk or hit for power, his offensive value is entirely dependent on his hit tool. With an average exit velocity that would have ranked 213th out of 252 qualified hitters, it’s hard to see how he can come anywhere near repeating his 2022 offensive production.

Then again, any offensive production from Mcguire would be an added bonus rather than a necessity. There’s only a handful of catchers around the league who are above-average at the plate and in the field, so as long as Mcguire continues to be a good defender, the Red Sox will keep giving him chances. As for offense, I expect some regression closer to his .256/.301/.380 career slash line, and possibly a little higher given how his ground ball tendencies will complement the banning of the shift, but nowhere close to his final two months of the 2022 season.

Stat Predictions: .264/.318/.382 103 games 4 HR 42 RBI 1.3 WAR

Red Sox Predictions: Connor Wong

Like many fans, I spent the majority of the summer clamoring for the Red Sox to call up Connor Wong. The old saying is that the grass is always greener on the other side, but when the grass you have is Kevin Plawecki and his .220/.286/.286 slashline, the other side looks pretty damn appealing. As Plawecki struggled to hit the ball to the outfield, Wong was having his best season yet at Triple-A Pawtucket, slashing .288/.349/.489 with fifteen home runs.

Our calls were finally answered in early September, when Wong was recalled from the minors and Plawecki was DFA’d to open up everyday at-bats. The results, however, did not come close to matching the hype. Wong was only able to put up a .175/.283/.325 slashline with a single home run in 22 games. His swing-and-miss problems that were manageable in the minors spiked to a 28% strikeout rate in the majors, and he ended the season in a 2-for-21 rut.

Obviously, it’s unfair to judge anyone based on a month of action, but at a certain point, you have to ask yourself where the upside is. At 26, Wong is no longer just some prospect you can dream on but rather a player who is closing in on being a finished product. Wong’s biggest calling card is his unique athleticism for a catcher, which allowed him to steal 26 bases in 2018, and according to Soxprospects, he grades well in terms of framing and rapport with pitchers.

That alone should be enough to keep Wong on big-league rosters for the foreseeable future, but it’s his bat that will determine whether he can be a true contributor or a run-of-the-mill backup. Over the last two seasons, Wong has a career .276/.327/.471 slashline at Triple-A ,which is pretty underwhelming for a guy in his mid 20s. He doesn’t walk often, have a great hit toot, exceed against left-handed pitchers, or project to have anything more than league average power. In other words, he looks a lot like a backup catcher.

Keep in mind, a backup catcher looks like a median projection for Wong. It’s entirely possible that Wong just isn’t able to hit big-league pitching, and his solid defense isn’t enough for a team that needs offense. The signing of Jorge Alfaro to a minor league deal puts the pressure on Wong, and I project that by midseason Alfaro, whose .773 career OPS suggests he can perform a strong platoon with Reese Mcguire, takes over the reins from Wong.

Stat Predictions: .226/.284/.363 73 games 5 HR 27 RBI 0.1 WAR

Red Sox Prediction: Joely Rodriguez

For all the criticism the Red Sox have gotten this offseason, they have been really aggressive in going after guys they like. They locked up Masataka Yoshida just hours after he was officially posted. They sent the cavalry to the Dominican Republic in hopes of finalizing a Rafael Devers extension. It makes sense why the Red Sox were so adamant about getting a deal done with those two hitters, but they were equally as motivated with journeyman Joely Rodriguez, whom they signed just weeks after free agency began.

At first glance, Rodriguez looks to be the next man up in the long series of Red Sox lefties who can’t find the plate, succeeding legends like Darwinzon Hernandez and Jake Diekman. Over his five-year career, Rodriguez has walked nearly a batter every other inning, and his 4.6 BB/9 in 2022 was the second highest total of his career. With a 96.1 inning sample size to work with over the last two seasons, Rodriguez’s 4.56 ERA indicates that he’s more of a run-of-the-mill middle reliever than someone who can be trusted in the late innings.

Rodriguez, however, does have a couple of things going for him that could point to more future success. For one, he is a master at inducing weak contact. His opponent hard-hit percentage, average exit velocity, and barrel percentage all ranked in the top 10 percentile among all pitchers. Rodriguez is able to induce such contact with a 94th percentile chase rate, as batters frequently expand the zone to swing at pitches they can’t drive with any authority. Rodriguez is also the rare lefty reliever who doesn’t have severe platoon splits, as he held both lefties and righties to an OPS below .650 in 2022.

The key to Rodriguez elevating his game will be the success of his best pitch. While his sinker, which he throws nearly 50% of the time, is nothing special (.263 opponents average, 14% whiff rate), Rodriguez’s changeup has a claim as one of the best in the game. Batters hit just .182 against it in 2022, and whiffed at a 38.5% clip. If Rodriguez can swap his usages of his two primary pitches, he can be a truly dominant reliever, and given how aggressive the Red Sox were in signing him this fall, they must believe he has a chance of doing just that. Don’t be surprised if Rodriguez is one of Alex Cora’s main weapons out of the bullpen this season

Stats Prediction: 3.46 ERA 57 IP 4.1 BB/9 10.3 K/9