Red Sox Prediction: Adam Duvall

As the Red Sox roster began to come together in early January, it was clear there was a couple of glaring needs in the lineup. The Red Sox had built their team around high-contact/high-on-base guys like Masataka Yoshida, Justin Turner, and Alex Verdugo, but lacked a legitimate power threat to compliment Rafael Devers and improve on a 155 home run output that ranked 20th in the MLB. In addition, the lineup was extremely left-handed heavy, a problem that was only exacerbated with the loss of Trevor Story.

With a singular move, the Red Sox solved both of those problems. Let me clear: I am not saying that Duvall is some kind of savior. After all, there is a reason he was available on January 17. For one, his approach has been, and will likely always be, terrible. He’s struck out over 30% percent of the time in three of the last four seasons and hasn’t topped 40 walks since 2016. This puts a cap on his offensive ceiling, as even in his 2021 season which he led the league with 113 RBIS and his 38 home runs, his OPS+ was just 102. He is also coming off a rough 2022 season in which he was plagued by injuries, hit just 12 home runs and slashed just .213/.276/.401.

With that being said, I still think this move will turn out well for the Red Sox. First and foremost, Duvall has a swing built for Fenway Park. 48.4% percent of his batted balls went to the pull side, compared to the league-average of 36.8%. In other words, the Green Monster better be ready for some absolute missiles, because Duvall is just one year removed from ranking in the top 10% in baseball in barrel percentage and max exit velocity. The Red Sox aren’t asking Duvall to be the second coming of Tony Gwynn: As long as he hits around 25 home runs, they’ll be happy, and with the elements in his favor, he should be able to do just that.

One thing that gets lost in the shuffle about Duvall is that he is surprisingly athletic. At first glance, he might appear like some hulking, three-true-outcomes slugger, but he ranked in the 67th percentile in sprint speed and 88th percentile in Outs Above Average. I have no doubt he can handle a corner outfield position, but I am still a little skeptical of his ability in center. Centerfield in Fenway Park isn’t easy for anyone, and that is especially true for a 35-year-old who didn’t start playing centerfield until 2021. I think he has enough athleticism and defensive instincts to be an average defender in center, but I wouldn’t expect anything more, and he will certainly be a downgrade from Kike Hernandez.

Overall, Duvall is a flawed player, but what he does well will perfectly compliment the 2023 Red Sox. Of all the numbers I’ve thrown out, the most important one by far is that he has a career .844 OPS against left-handed pitchers. Sticking him in between Yoshida and Devers or Casas and Verdugo or any combination of the Red Sox four prominent left-handed hitters will prevent an opposing southpaw from running through this lineup. I am expecting somewhere in between his 2021 and 2022 season: An underwhelming but not unplayable average and on-base percentage to go along with 25-30 home runs.

Stats: .224/.286/.458 24 HR 68 RBI 1.4 WAR

Red Sox Prediction: John Schreiber

Literally the only good thing about the 2022 Red Sox was the emergence of John Schreiber. The 27-year-old journeyman started the year in Triple-A, but after getting called up in April. Schreiber quickly carved out a role as the team’s most reliable reliever. With a side-arm delivery and a nasty sinker-slider combination, Cora kept turning to Schreiber in every key situation before he understandably ran out of gas at the end of the season.

As is the case with any breakout player, the question immediately turns to whether the success was sustainable. Based on Schreiber’s advanced metrics, the answer is a resounding yes. His expected ERA and expected batting average were both in the top ten percentile in baseball, while his strikeout percentage were well above-average as well. His slider was arguably the best in baseball, generating swings-and-misses on over 40% of his swings and holding batters to a .162 average, while his fastball (.178 opponent average) isn’t too shabby either.

All of this is even more impressive when you consider how his performance fell off at the end of the season. Clearly feeling the effects of being the team’s only good reliever, Schreiber had a 3.57 ERA from August 7 with his strikeout rate and walk rate moving clearly in the wrong direction. With much more help joining him in the Red Sox bullpen this year, Cora will not be forced to turn to Schreiber at every critical moment, but Schreiber should still be one of his most trusted options in the late innings in 2023.

Stat Prediction: 2.89 ERA 64 IP 3.0 BB/9 11.4 K/9

Red Sox Prediction: Kenley Jansen

Of all the moves the Red Sox have made this offseason, this is the one that will make the biggest impact. Since the departure of Craig Kimbrel after the 2018 season, the Red Sox have been searching for a lockdown closer. That hole was most glaring in 2022, with the team cycling through unreliable arm after unreliable arm in route to finishing sixth in the majors with 28 blown saves.

Finding a reliable closer was obviously at the top of the Red Sox’s to-do list this offseason, and they went out and got one of the absolute best. From the moment he stepped into the role for the Dodgers in 2012, Kenley Jansen has been the game’s most consistent and reliable closer. Over the last eleven seasons, the big right-hander has posted a 2.50 ERA, averaged 35 saves a season, and struck out 871 batters against just 163 walks. His durability has been equally as impressive, as Jansen has appeared in at least 60 games in nine of the last 10 non-Covid-shortened seasons.

The main point of criticism around the Jansen signing is that, at 35, he isn’t the pitcher he once was. His last five seasons, while still dominant, are a clear drop off from his previous five.

2013-2017: 2.01 ERA, 1.74 FIP, .804 WHIP, 13.7 K/9, 1.7 BB/9

2018-2022: 3.08 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 1.04 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9

His bread and butter has always been his cutter, and with that pitch understanbly losing a tick of velocity and a touch of control as he has aged, he just isn’t the unhittable force he once was.

Yet it’s worth remembering that because Jansen’s peak was so otherworldly, a slight drop-off still results in one of the best closers in the game. His expected batting average against, expected slugging percentage against, and strikeout percentage each ranked in the top 10 percentile of all pitchers. Even the aforementioned cutter, which he threw over 64 percent of the time, still held batters to a .170 batting average and .262 slugging percentage. Jansen may no longer be putting up numbers that would make prime Mariano Rivera proud, but there are still about 25 teams in the majors who would love to have him in their bullpen.

Besides finally giving the Red Sox a proven closer, Jansen’s arrival will completely change how the Red Sox use their bullpen. There will be less pressure put on middle relievers John Schrieber, Matt Barnes and now Chris Martin, and give Alex Cora the ability to mix-and-match that he never had last year. It also allows the team to move Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck, two of their highest upside arms, back to the starting rotation. Simply put, the acquisition of Jansen will be worth it's goal, and the impact of having a bonafide stopper will be felt from the very first game.

Projections: 3.11 ERA 62 IP 11.4 K/9 2.6 BB/9 37 SV