Expectations are a funny thing. Before the season, if someone asked me how the 2023 Red Sox were going to do, I would tell them one of three things:
The Red Sox will play competitive baseball
The 2023 Red Sox will be better than the 2022 Red Sox
86 wins is the target total
So here we are, 91 games through the season, and the Red Sox are on pace for…. 85.5 wins. That would be seven games better than 2022 and certainly qualifies as playing competitive baseball. So in one sense, I am already very happy with the Red Sox performance so far. In 2019, the Red Sox never really had the pitching to be taken seriously and were completely out of the race after an eight-losing streak at the beginning of August. The 2020 Red Sox were never relevant. The 2022 Red Sox, with the exception of a month and a half stretch from mid-May to the end of June, had bad vibes the entire season and were undone by an 8-19 July. At the very least, this year’s team will be playing meaningful baseball games deep into the summer, and that’s all you can really ask for.
Additionally, while previous Red Sox teams had the impending free agencies of Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts looming over the season, this Red Sox team is powered by a bunch of young, exciting players who figure to be a large of part of the future. At the front of the list is Brayan Bello, who has progressed far faster than anyone could have expected and looks like one of the best young pitchers in the game. Then there’s Jarren Duran, the former afterthought that started the season in Triple-A who stepped into the starting centerfield role when Adam Duvall went down, and has batted .320 with an unfathomable 27 doubles in 251 plate appearances. Connor Wong has shown he can be a starting catcher at the major league level with a competent bat and exceptional defense, and even Triston Casas has bounced back from a miserable start with a .274/.357/.444 slash line since May 23.
It hasn’t just been the young guys either. Nearly every outside acquisition this past offseason has met or exceeded expectations. Justin Turner is batting .288 while already matching his 2022 total with 13 first-half home runs. Adam Duvall hasn’t been nearly the same force as he was before his injury, but he has still posted a 124 OPS+ and played solid outfield defense. Though technically signed before last season, James Paxton has been everything the Red Sox could have asked for in his Boston debut, posting a career-low 2.73 ERA and not missing any of his last ten turns in the rotation. The bullpen was a glaring issue before last season but has been completely stabilized by Chris Martin (1.57 ERA) and Kenley Jansen (3.23 ERA, 19 saves).
None of these acquisitions, however, will have the long-term ramifications or create more vindication among Chaim Bloom supporters than that of Masataka Yoshida. The Red Sox inked the Japanese outfielder to a 5-year/$90 deal, with led to reports that other teams thought he was worth roughly half of that. It became clear pretty early that a complete whiff on Yoshida would likely put a death nail in Bloom’s Red Sox tenure, but after a rough start, it was clear we wouldn’t have to worry about that scenario. Over his last 65 games, Yoshida has slashed an incredible .344/.397/.538, making a strong case as one of the best hitters in baseball and proving he was worth the long-term investments.
That’s a lot of things that have gone right for the Red Sox, and I haven’t even mentioned Alex Verdugo (3.2 WAR, 119 OPS+) and Rafael Devers (20 HR, 69 RBI), who are arguably their two best players. Why then are the Red Sox sitting only at a 48-43 record and outside the playoff picture? Here are the five biggest reasons:
Kiké Hernandez
If the Red Sox had Trevor Story playing shortstop every day instead of Kiké Hernandez, the Red Sox would be in the second wild card and within striking distance of the Orioles and Rays. It’s that simple because Hernandez has been that bad. His -0.6 WAR is 547th out of 576 players this year, due in large part to .602 OPS and a league-leading 15 errors. This would be pathetic for any player, but even more so for a guy who was the first piece of the puzzle put in place when he signed a one-year extension last September and did quite a bit of talking in the face of the critics before the season.
Injuries
Yes, every team deals with injuries over the course of a 162-game season, but few can match the parade of IL stints that the Red Sox have had to deal with so far in 2023. By June, they had already lost their ace (Chris Sale), their All-Star shortstop (Trevor Story), and their primary setup man (John Schrieber), all of whom landed on the 60-day IL. Their starting rotation was decimated by the injury to Sale, three IL stints by Garrett Whitlock, and a line drive that struck Tanner Houck in the face which has already knocked him out for a month. In fact, if you consider Nick Pivetta a reliever, every starting pitcher has spent time on the injured list. The health of the offense has been considerably better, but a never-ending series of injuries at the shortstop position, from Story to Christian Arroyo to Yu Chang to Pablo Reye, has forced the Sox to stick with Hernandez.
Defense
Kiké may be the main culprit, but he is far from the only Red Sock struggling on defense. Triston Casas has been so shaky at first base that he has drawn the ire of the coaching staff, while at the hot corner, Rafael Devers has once again been maddingly inconsistent (15th percentile Outs Above Average). On the bright side, Connor Wong has been one of the best defensive catchers in baseball, while Jarren Duran and Alex Verdugo have both been excellent in the outfield (Masataka Yoshida is, as advertised, a poor defender, but thankfully not unplayable). With Yu Chang, Pablo Reyes, and eventually Trevor Story coming back to relieve Hernandez of his duties, defense is not as much of a concern as it was when Enmanuel Valdez was playing every day, but there is no denying it has been a liability so far this season
Starting Pitching
There are a couple different aspects of the Red Sox starting pitching struggles. The first is the aforementioned injury bug, which has prevented the Red Sox from having their full rotation besides a couple weeks in late May (where of course the offense was in a slump). The second aspect is the struggles of veteran starters Nick Pivetta and Corey Kluber, which killed the team in April but has since been resolved with the former becoming a key piece bullpen and the latter landing on the injured list. The final and perhaps most overlooked aspect of the Red Sox starting pitching struggles have been the need for the young starters to learn to pitch at the big league level. Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford have all shown flashes, but have struggled with consistency and getting through a lineup multiple times, which should be expected of three guys in their first full season in a major league rotation. With all these issues at once, it’s a miracle the Red Sox are where they are, and the bulk of the credit goes to James Paxton and Brayan Bello, who have been two of the majors' best pitchers since Paxton came back in late May.
An Inconsistent Offense
Overall, the Red Sox offense has been really good, ranking fourth in the majors in batting average and sixth in runs and OPS. Yet they have gone through their fair share of dry spells, which can be expected from a lineup that features four everyday players in their first full major league season (as well as the giant aforementioned black hole at shortstop). Indeed, Connor Wong, Triston Casas, Masataka Yoshida, and Jarren Duran all look like potential building blocks for the future, but they have each had their moments where they have looked completely lost at the plate
Connor Wong: .182/.244/.331 from May 5 to July 2
Triston Casas: .128/.281/.282 from March 30 to May 1
Masataka Yoshida: .167/.310/.250 from March 30 to April 18 (O.K this doesn’t really apply to him)
Jarren Duran: .133/.188/.183 from May 19 to June 7
Again, this is to be expected from guys seeing a full season of major league pitching for the first time, but given how much the Red Sox count on each of these bats, these slumps often drag down the entire offense, especially with Rafael Devers having inconsistencies of his own. For istance, Duran was considered an afterthought entering this season, but in the 18-game stretch where he was a non-factor as the plate, the Red Sox averaged just 3.6 runs a game.
Another issue is that the Red Sox don’t hit a lot of home runs. Their 94 long balls rank just 22nd in the majors, with only one of the teams behind them (Miami Marlins) having a winning record. This forces them to string hits together to score runs, which they do more often times than not, but makes them susceptible to cold streaks when the BABIP gods aren’t on their side.
So here’s where are, ending the first half with a talented, interesting, and competitive team. But before we preview the second half, let’s take a bigger look at the Red Sox organization as a whole. And yes, this means talking about Chaim Bloom. No GM (or Chief Baseball Officer, whatever) has drawn more widespread criticism, in large part because no GM was asked to trade a future Hall of Famer in the first few months on the job. Look, I am not immune to Chaim criticism. In his three and a half years on the job, the Red Sox have been a .500 team. With the resources at his disposal, that is simply unacceptable. There have been far too many misses, from the Corey Kluber signing, the persistence on making Ryan Braiser and Hernandez key pieces of the team, the Renfroe/Bradley Jr. trade, the half-cooked mess that was the 2022 roster, and the fiasco trade deadline where they somehow didn’t get under the luxury tax.
Yet as I always say to Bloom critics, there is no perfect GM. The Dodgers spent the exact same amount of Noah Syndergaard, who has been every bit as useless as Corey Kluber. The Rays got rid of Hunter Renfroe right before he became a perennial 30-home-run hitter. Bloom was brought in to build a sustainable winner, a phrase that in itself stresses patience. Nothing great was built overnight. Rebuilding the 30th-ranked farm system in baseball with a bloated big-league payroll was not going to be easy In many ways, 2022 marked the end of the Dombrowski era, where Xander Bogaerts, J.D Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Christian Vazquez were on the way out, replaced by a group of young players either brought in or developed by Bloom.
You want to criticize Bloom for the aforementioned missteps? Fine. But then you have to give him credit for the development of Brayan Bello, who has a 5.43 ERA in Greenville in the season before took over. You have to give him credit for being patient with Jarren Duran, who many fans were ready to give up before the season. You have to give him credit for being aggressive with Masataka Yoshida and sticking to his guns with Xander Bogaerts, a swap that looks great now and will look even better in the future. You have to give him credit for closing the deal with Rafael Devers at a reasonable price in an offseason when signing guys until their age-40 season was the norm. And as tough as it may be, you have to give him credit for getting Connor Wong and Alex Verdugo in the Mookie Betts trade. The Rockies got nothing for Nolan Arenado. The Marlins got nothing for Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and J.T. Realmuto. The Diamondbacks got nothing for Paul Goldschmidt. Not only did the Red Sox not get nothing, they got two of the best defenders in baseball who are also above-average hitters at their position.
And that’s just at the major league level. None of his draft picks have made it to the majors yet, but the system has been overhauled with players who look like, at worse, big-league regulars. Bloom’s first draft was the shortened, bizarre 2020 one in which the Red Sox didn’t have a second-round pick, yet Bloom selected three players (Nick Yorke, Blaze Jordan, and Shane Drohan) who look like future-big league contributors. In 2021, he selected Marcelo Mayer, who is a consensus top-ten prospect in the game, and in 2022 he selected Roman Anthony in the second round, who has arguably been the biggest breakout prospect in baseball this season and is beginning to find himself high on top 100 prospect lists. He also oversaw the signing of Miguel Bleis, who was a top-25 prospect in the game before a season-ended shoulder injury. With Kyle Teel drafted early this week, the Red Sox now have six position player prospects (Mayer, Anthony, Yorke, Teel, Cedanne Rafaela, Bleis) who frequently land in the top 100 prospect list, and while the pitching depth is admittedly weaker, Luis Perales and Wikelman Gonzalez have both dominated the lower minors on their way to mid-season promotions.
O.K, here’s the point to all of this. Regardless of what happens this season (more on that in a bit), you have to feel good about the future of the organization. There is an abundance of talent as both the major and minor league levels, and with the luxury tax being reset this season, the Red Sox will have plenty of room to add this offseason. I am confident in saying that most of the key members of the next great Red Sox team are already within the organization, and that is a really exciting prospect. So even if the Red Sox tail off and finish with a .500 record, even if they finish in last place again, I am not going to be calling for Bloom’s head. He has built the foundation, and now you have to let him finish the job.
As bright as the future is, I, like many of you, am impatient and am not interested in waiting until 2024 or 2025 for the postseason. This year’s team SHOULD make the postseason. Now, that doesn’t mean I am necessarily predicting them to make the postseason, but with the pieces they have coming back in just a few weeks, there is no excuse for them to fall out of the race.
The term I’ve frequently used since Trevor Story went under the knife in January is “tread water”. “Tread water until Story comes back. “Tread water until Adam Duvall comes back.” “Tread water until Chris Sale comes back.” Well here we are just a couple of weeks away from Story and Sale’s return, and the Red Sox are right in the thick of the race. If the reports are true that Story is just days away from starting a minor league rehab assignment, then August 4- the beginning of the homestand against the Blue Jays- seems like a reasonable expectation for his return. The Red Sox have 17 games until them: 3 at the Cubs, 3 at the Athletics, 3 hosting the Mets, 2 hosting the Braves, 3 at the Giants, and 3 at the Mariners. If they JUST go 9-8 in those games, they are sitting at 57-51. That’s all I'm asking. Just be perfectly mediocre over the next three weeks, and wait for the cavalry to arrive.
The approach at the trade deadline depends entirely on the next few weeks and the health of the returning players. If all the aforementioned players are set to return by early August and the Red Sox are either in a postseason position or just a game or two outside, how can you pull the plug on the season? How do you not add to the existing roster and show the clubhouse you believe in them? And it’s not like we’re talking about huge additions in which you need to sacrifice key pieces from the future. The offense with Trevor Story is set. The bullpen looks fine too, especially if they add Tanner Houck or Kutter Crawford to the mix and Joely Rodriguez builds upon his first outing back from the injured list. All I’m asking for is a little help in the rotation. You’re telling me you can’t throw a Branner Boanici and a Hunter Dobbins, two players having excellent years in the minor leagues, at someone for a mid-rotation starter?
There is, however, the possibility that the Red Sox continue their trend of following two steps forward and two steps back and fall out of the race in the coming weeks. In that scenario, you have to believe that impending free agents James Paxton and Adam Duvall are gone, as well as seeing if anyone can free the Red Sox of Kiké. Where I hope the Red Sox draw the line is with players who are free agents after 2024. If the Red Sox are serious about competing in 2024, they’re going to need Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, Justin Turner, and Alex Verdugo. Selling any of those players for down-the-line prospects would represent a massive and unnecessary step back.
The most likely scenario is that the Red Sox don’t necessarily all-out buy or all-out sell but rather rearrange the chairs. Hernandez will be on the way out, likely by way of DFA. Duvall should follow if only to free up well-earned, everyday at-bats for Jarren Duran. On the addition side, it's unlikely they make any needle-changing moves, but a couple of depth arms and potentially a right-handed bench bat with some power seems like a safe bet.
Honestly, I’m just excited that we have a baseball team worth getting invested in. Sure, we all want championships and dynasties, but being able to talk about a talented, relevant Red Sox team this deep into the season is pretty awesome. I can’t wait to see what the next few weeks hold/
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