I’m tired.
The first 18 games of the 2024 Red Sox has been a grind, an emotional rollercoaster, a few good moments overshadowed by devastating injuries, mind-numbing mistakes and one gut-punch after the other. I want to be clear, I did not expect the Red Sox to contend this year. I believed that they could be a good team if everything went right. The bullpen was strong, the rotation was unproven but talented, and the lineup was going to score runs. The path to contention was there, but it completely collapsed when Trevor Story’s shoulder crashed down on the Angels stadium ground in the eighth game of the season.
At that moment, I knew things were going to go downhill. Besides the Gold-Glove defense he provided, besides the right-handed power bat that the Red Sox desperately needed, Trevor Story left a leadership vacuum that the Red Sox simply could not fill. Yet the way the Red Sox have completely imploded since that fateful night is a reflection on the players, the coaching, and the ones who put this poorly constructed roster together.
The fact of the matter is that no roster should be an injury away from collapsing. No roster should be an injury from David Hamilton playing shortstop everyday, or Bobby Dalbec getting regulat at-bats. The Red Sox have had terrible injury luck this season, and we are still awaiting word on Rafael Devers, but they should have been prepared. They should have had better options.
Then there are the mental mistakes. Not touching second base on a double-play. Not throwing to the wrong base. Not knowing how many outs there are. Getting picked off in critical situations. These are things that can’t happen at the big league level. Besides being embarrassing, it’s a reflection on coaching, both at the major-league level and throughout the system. The Orioles are every bit as young as the Red Sox, but they aren’t making these mistakes. The has been a problem for four years, and we can’t throw the blame on Carlos Febles any more. This is an organazational epidemic that needs to be overhauled.
While Breslow deserves blame for failing to adequate develop a contingency plan, he is far from the biggest problem. In fact, the Tyler O’Neill and Justin Slaten acquisitions look like strokes of genius, and the pitching staff has made the changes that we had hoped when Breslow and Bailey took over. Many of the problems with this roster are residue from the Chaim Bloom era. Masataka Yoshida is a complete black hole on the roster, hogging the DH position and clogging the bases while showing no improvements in his ability to consistently drive the ball with authority. Kenley Jansen is a similar black hole at the end of the bullpen, still getting the highest leverage innings despite looking nothing like the Hall of Famer he was a few years ago.
So the veterans are hurt or underperforming. How about the young guys? Where is the hope? Let’s break down the Red Sox young players into three categories:
Future All-Stars, Franchise Centerpieces: Triston Casas, Brayan Bello
The two biggest reasons to keep watching this season. Triston Casas looks like he’s ready to take that jump into a 130 OPS+, 30+ home run guy, while Bello continues to make strides towards being that number 2 type starter.
Solid Contributors: Kutter Crawford, Jarren Duran, Justin Slaten
Kutter showed flashes last season, and while there are still concerns about his stamina and durability, you can’t argue with the results through his first four starts. Duran probably isn’t a leadoff hitter long-term, but he’s a plus-defender at each corner position and likely a slightly above-average bat. Justin Slaten has the best stuff in the Red Sox bullpen, and I’m all in on him as a long-term bullpen piece.
Jury Still Out: Wilyer Abreu, Connor Wong, Cedanne Rafaela, Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, Vaughn Grissom
All of these guys have serious concerns, whether it be health (Whitlock), defense (Grissom) offensive upside (Rafaela, Wong), or consistency (Houck, Abreu). In a season like this, we need to find out who can make the jump to the second group and who is not worth penciling in on the team’s long-term plans.
On top of all that, the next wave of talent isn’t that far away. I expect Kyle Teel and Marcelo Mayer in the majors by this year, with Roman Anthony having an outside chance if he proves to be in the Jackson Holliday/Wyatt Langford level of prospects\. Without any outside enforcements, the 2025 Red Sox could look like this:
RF Anthony
2B Grissom
DH Devers
1B Casas
3B Story
SS Mayer
LF Duran
C Teel
CF Rafaela
That is a lineup that can be locked in for the next five years, and if all goes according to plan, can rival the Orioles and Braves for best home-grown core.
Here’s the thing though: It’s embarrassing that we’re talking about 2025 on April 17, 2024. Yes, the team has had an almost comical amount of injuries, but there are organazational flaws and philosophies that need to be cleaned up. The team has shown an unwillingness to spend, an inability to properly evaluate outside talent, and a disinterest in fixing it’s teams biggest issues. There is enough on the current roster to be excited about, but becoming true contenders will take a lot more than just better luck.
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