There’s really two ways of looking at the State of the Nation right now:
Glass-half empty: The Red Sox are in the midst of yet another mediocre season and are already double-digit games besides the Orioles and the Yankees. Their pitching has regressed and the quality of the lineups they are sending out on a daily basis are not major-league caliber
Glass-half full: Despite a comical amount of injuries, the Red Sox are still playing competitive baseball and are just a game and a half out of the Wild Card. There is still plenty of time to make a push and many of the injured regulars will be back in the coming weeks.
Look, the Red Sox aren’t good. But they aren’t exactly bad either. I would describe them more as helpless. It’s just kind of sad watching Bobby Dalbec trot out to right field, or David Hamilton stumble around while being pressed into everyday shortstop duty, or Connor Wong and Dom Smith batting three-four in the order. With the exception of Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers , most of the guys in the regular lineup should not be everyday big league baseball players. Even Rob Refsnyder, who is having a great season, is best utilized as a lefty-masher in the weak half of a platoon rather than a three-hole hitter.
This is why I’m not worried about the offense. Despite being asked to do way too much, the role players have exceeded expectations. Wong, Refsnyder, and even Hamilton have all been well-above-average hitters, while Duran and Devers are each having career-best seasons. This is why despite all the injuries, the Red Sox are still 11th in runs and 9th in OPS. The reason they are not higher, however, is because replacement players like Garrett Cooper, Dom Smith, Bobby Dalbec, Pablo Reyes, Enmanuel Valdez and Jamie Westbrook have contributed practically nothing. Once the regulars return and push those guys to the bench or Triple-A, I have no doubt the Sox will be scoring runs in bunches
My biggest long-term concern, surprisingly, lies with the pitching staff. Despite ranking fifth in the majors in ERA, it’s clear that the ship is starting to sink. Yes, Tanner Houck is fantastic, and Nick Pivetta has been phenomenal despite a few bumps in the road, but there are legitimate concerns with the other three guys in the rotation.
Let’s start with the guy I’m least worried about. Kutter Crawford was never going to be the Cy-Young caliber starter he looked like in April. He has OKish stuff, as none of his pitches stand out as exceptional, and his command comes and goes. He’s always profiled more as a back-end guy, and that’s been clear in his last three starts against three great offenses in which he’s had a 8.27 ERA.
Those starts, however, would look a lot better if not for two really bad pitches: A hanging curveball to Gunnar Henderson that resulted in a grand slam, and a middle-middle fastball to Ozzie Albies that was wacked for a three-run home run. Look, there’s going to be times where Crawford is going to give up some loud contact, and he just happened to throw the two worst pitches of his night in the two most critical points. It was also clear in that Braves start that he was running out of gas, and Alex Cora smartly gave him an extra two days before his next start against the Phillies tomorrow. He’s not an ace, but I have full confidence that Crawford can continue to be an above-average starter the rest of the season.
There’s really not much to say about Cooper Criswell. Over his last 5 starts, he has a 6.45 ERA despite only walking six batters. The league is figuring him out, because it’s really hard to succeed at the highest level when you are topping out at 91. It’s a classic example of someone being exactly who we thought they were. Criswell is a swingman and a depth arm forced to take the ball every five days, and there are going to be more rough outings in his future.
That leaves Brayan Bello, the supposed ace of the staff. His command has been atrocious this year, leading to a sinker that has been absolutely battered and a changeup that has already been sent over the fence five times. The stuff is all there, but it doesn’t matter when you don’t know where it’s going. How many times has Bello fallen behind 1-0 or 2-0 and been forced to throw his sinker? It’s up to the pitching development team to figure out how to get Bello to throw better and more consistent strikes.
As far as the bullpen goes, it’s…. fine. Kenley Jansen has been phenomenal since his early-season meltdowns, which means the Red Sox could get a haul for him at the deadline. After him, however, Chris Martin has had a number of blowups and landed on the IL with anxiety, and Greg Weissert and Justin Slaten have been only O.K in recent weeks. In fact, the best reliever in the Red Sox bullpen may be Brennan Bernadino and his 1.03 ERA. The bullpen hasn’t had too many close games recently, but they’ve been generally effective in protecting leads. So I have no complaints. Except for Brad Keller.
Here’s the bottom line: In my heart, I know we should sell at the deadline. I don’t think this team has any chance of making a run at the playoffs, and I don’t want to move any of the prospects it would take to land an impact player. I still believe there’s a good baseball team here somewhere, but they may be too far out of it by the time they find it. Right now, I’m waiting to see what the Red Sox look like when they start to get their pieces back, and I hope by the All-Star break we have a better understanding of what direction we need to go in. Because the absolute worst thing would be to do nothing at the trade deadline. Again.
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