As the Red Sox roster began to come together in early January, it was clear there was a couple of glaring needs in the lineup. The Red Sox had built their team around high-contact/high-on-base guys like Masataka Yoshida, Justin Turner, and Alex Verdugo, but lacked a legitimate power threat to compliment Rafael Devers and improve on a 155 home run output that ranked 20th in the MLB. In addition, the lineup was extremely left-handed heavy, a problem that was only exacerbated with the loss of Trevor Story.
With a singular move, the Red Sox solved both of those problems. Let me clear: I am not saying that Duvall is some kind of savior. After all, there is a reason he was available on January 17. For one, his approach has been, and will likely always be, terrible. He’s struck out over 30% percent of the time in three of the last four seasons and hasn’t topped 40 walks since 2016. This puts a cap on his offensive ceiling, as even in his 2021 season which he led the league with 113 RBIS and his 38 home runs, his OPS+ was just 102. He is also coming off a rough 2022 season in which he was plagued by injuries, hit just 12 home runs and slashed just .213/.276/.401.
With that being said, I still think this move will turn out well for the Red Sox. First and foremost, Duvall has a swing built for Fenway Park. 48.4% percent of his batted balls went to the pull side, compared to the league-average of 36.8%. In other words, the Green Monster better be ready for some absolute missiles, because Duvall is just one year removed from ranking in the top 10% in baseball in barrel percentage and max exit velocity. The Red Sox aren’t asking Duvall to be the second coming of Tony Gwynn: As long as he hits around 25 home runs, they’ll be happy, and with the elements in his favor, he should be able to do just that.
One thing that gets lost in the shuffle about Duvall is that he is surprisingly athletic. At first glance, he might appear like some hulking, three-true-outcomes slugger, but he ranked in the 67th percentile in sprint speed and 88th percentile in Outs Above Average. I have no doubt he can handle a corner outfield position, but I am still a little skeptical of his ability in center. Centerfield in Fenway Park isn’t easy for anyone, and that is especially true for a 35-year-old who didn’t start playing centerfield until 2021. I think he has enough athleticism and defensive instincts to be an average defender in center, but I wouldn’t expect anything more, and he will certainly be a downgrade from Kike Hernandez.
Overall, Duvall is a flawed player, but what he does well will perfectly compliment the 2023 Red Sox. Of all the numbers I’ve thrown out, the most important one by far is that he has a career .844 OPS against left-handed pitchers. Sticking him in between Yoshida and Devers or Casas and Verdugo or any combination of the Red Sox four prominent left-handed hitters will prevent an opposing southpaw from running through this lineup. I am expecting somewhere in between his 2021 and 2022 season: An underwhelming but not unplayable average and on-base percentage to go along with 25-30 home runs.
Stats: .224/.286/.458 24 HR 68 RBI 1.4 WAR
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