When I first started these predictions and was working on Verdugo’s preview, I was all set on claiming Verdugo was a player who would never quite live up to expectations. No doubt, Verdugo’s raw hitting ability will always earn him a place on a roster, but it seemed certain that he would never be more than a good role player. Then came a tweet from his brother Chris, which claimed that Verdugo dealt with a broken toe for the first two months, and when you look at his season splits, it all starts to make sense:
Opening Day through May 31: .227/.263/.335 .598 OPS 3 HR 24 RBI
June 1 through the end of the season: .302/.355/.434 .789 OPS 8 HR 50 RBI
That’s the good news. The bad news is that Verdugo has been showing flashes of brilliance for years now. When he’s on, there are few prettier swings in the game. He can hit any pitch from any pitcher to any part of the field. On the flip side, when he’s off, there are few more frustrating hitters in the game. Verdugo’s bat-to-ball skills frequently work against him, as he expands the zone on pitches he can’t do anything with. This results in a whole lot of weak ground balls to second and lazy fly balls to right, and very few extra-base hits.
There is an enormous amount of pressure on Verdugo to be on a lot more often then he’s off, because his value is tied entirely to his bat. He is a poor defender (-5 career OAA) and doesn’t make much of an impact on the bases. Furthermore, because Verdugo hates to walk and, despite the occasional moonshot, doesn’t consistently hit for power, he basically needs to hit .300 to have any positive value whatsoever.
The thing is though, Verdugo is one of the rare hitters these days that has the capability of reaching this benchmark. Over the last four seasons, Verdugo has posted a batting average of .289, and with the banning of shifts and a healed toe, there could be even more the tank. Yes, Verdugo is flawed. He’ll never win an MVP, and he may never even be an All-Star. But he can hit. He can really, really hit.
Stat Prediction: .297/.355/.473 152 games 14 HR 71 RBI 1.8 WAR
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