This is the guy. This one, right here. If the Red Sox want to have any chance of surprising people, they are going to need a breakout season from this 24-year-old. There’s no question the stuff is there. Brayan Bello might have the most exciting scouting reports of any Red Sox prospect this century, the kind of jaw-dropping wiffle balls that make you rewind spring training videos just to make sure you saw it right. Not many guys can pair a upper 90’s sinker with a Bugs-Bunny changeup that induces whiffs over 44% of the time.
Like practically all young pitchers, Bello is a little rough around the edges. His sinker was absolutely pummeled to the tune of .402 opponents' batting average, which speaks to poor command. His walk rate was a little higher than you would like it at 4.2 per nine innings, but that’s not disastrous for a rookie.
What is really going to make or break Bello’s season, and determine whether he can take that next step, is how he is able to fare when he goes through a lineup multiple times, because the results last year were not pretty.
1st time through the order: .267/.336/.317
2nd time through the order: .350/.427/.467
3rd time through the order: .362/.422/.500
Again, this is not unheard of for a young pitcher with only two dependable pitches, but it’s hard to pencil in Bello as a dependable starter when he is getting murdered every time he goes through an order multiple times. To be a major-league starter, having one dominant pitch is not going enough, as hitters clearly aren’t fooled when they see the changeup multiple times. The obvious solution to this would be better fastball command and more confidence in his slider, but that kind of growth is not going to happen overnight.
In a sense, Bello is the anti-Kluber. He is going to be incredibly fun to watch, and he’s going to have some flashes of true brilliance. On the other hand, there are going to be growing pains, there are going to be some blowups, and there are going to be some times where we as fans are going to throw our hands up in their air and shake our heads. There’s a lot of possibilities at play here, but a reasonable expectation is probably a mid-to-back end starter with higher upside at the end of the season.
Stat Predictions: 8-8 4.25 ERA 146 IP 3.9 BB/9 8.5 K/9
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