For all the criticism the Red Sox have gotten this offseason, they have been really aggressive in going after guys they like. They locked up Masataka Yoshida just hours after he was officially posted. They sent the cavalry to the Dominican Republic in hopes of finalizing a Rafael Devers extension. It makes sense why the Red Sox were so adamant about getting a deal done with those two hitters, but they were equally as motivated with journeyman Joely Rodriguez, whom they signed just weeks after free agency began.
At first glance, Rodriguez looks to be the next man up in the long series of Red Sox lefties who can’t find the plate, succeeding legends like Darwinzon Hernandez and Jake Diekman. Over his five-year career, Rodriguez has walked nearly a batter every other inning, and his 4.6 BB/9 in 2022 was the second highest total of his career. With a 96.1 inning sample size to work with over the last two seasons, Rodriguez’s 4.56 ERA indicates that he’s more of a run-of-the-mill middle reliever than someone who can be trusted in the late innings.
Rodriguez, however, does have a couple of things going for him that could point to more future success. For one, he is a master at inducing weak contact. His opponent hard-hit percentage, average exit velocity, and barrel percentage all ranked in the top 10 percentile among all pitchers. Rodriguez is able to induce such contact with a 94th percentile chase rate, as batters frequently expand the zone to swing at pitches they can’t drive with any authority. Rodriguez is also the rare lefty reliever who doesn’t have severe platoon splits, as he held both lefties and righties to an OPS below .650 in 2022.
The key to Rodriguez elevating his game will be the success of his best pitch. While his sinker, which he throws nearly 50% of the time, is nothing special (.263 opponents average, 14% whiff rate), Rodriguez’s changeup has a claim as one of the best in the game. Batters hit just .182 against it in 2022, and whiffed at a 38.5% clip. If Rodriguez can swap his usages of his two primary pitches, he can be a truly dominant reliever, and given how aggressive the Red Sox were in signing him this fall, they must believe he has a chance of doing just that. Don’t be surprised if Rodriguez is one of Alex Cora’s main weapons out of the bullpen this season
Stats Prediction: 3.46 ERA 57 IP 4.1 BB/9 10.3 K/9
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