Of all the moves the Red Sox have made this offseason, this is the one that will make the biggest impact. Since the departure of Craig Kimbrel after the 2018 season, the Red Sox have been searching for a lockdown closer. That hole was most glaring in 2022, with the team cycling through unreliable arm after unreliable arm in route to finishing sixth in the majors with 28 blown saves.
Finding a reliable closer was obviously at the top of the Red Sox’s to-do list this offseason, and they went out and got one of the absolute best. From the moment he stepped into the role for the Dodgers in 2012, Kenley Jansen has been the game’s most consistent and reliable closer. Over the last eleven seasons, the big right-hander has posted a 2.50 ERA, averaged 35 saves a season, and struck out 871 batters against just 163 walks. His durability has been equally as impressive, as Jansen has appeared in at least 60 games in nine of the last 10 non-Covid-shortened seasons.
The main point of criticism around the Jansen signing is that, at 35, he isn’t the pitcher he once was. His last five seasons, while still dominant, are a clear drop off from his previous five.
2013-2017: 2.01 ERA, 1.74 FIP, .804 WHIP, 13.7 K/9, 1.7 BB/9
2018-2022: 3.08 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 1.04 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9
His bread and butter has always been his cutter, and with that pitch understanbly losing a tick of velocity and a touch of control as he has aged, he just isn’t the unhittable force he once was.
Yet it’s worth remembering that because Jansen’s peak was so otherworldly, a slight drop-off still results in one of the best closers in the game. His expected batting average against, expected slugging percentage against, and strikeout percentage each ranked in the top 10 percentile of all pitchers. Even the aforementioned cutter, which he threw over 64 percent of the time, still held batters to a .170 batting average and .262 slugging percentage. Jansen may no longer be putting up numbers that would make prime Mariano Rivera proud, but there are still about 25 teams in the majors who would love to have him in their bullpen.
Besides finally giving the Red Sox a proven closer, Jansen’s arrival will completely change how the Red Sox use their bullpen. There will be less pressure put on middle relievers John Schrieber, Matt Barnes and now Chris Martin, and give Alex Cora the ability to mix-and-match that he never had last year. It also allows the team to move Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck, two of their highest upside arms, back to the starting rotation. Simply put, the acquisition of Jansen will be worth it's goal, and the impact of having a bonafide stopper will be felt from the very first game.
Projections: 3.11 ERA 62 IP 11.4 K/9 2.6 BB/9 37 SV
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