Trying to project Masataka Yoshida’s first big-league season is a fool’s errand. He has either been described as the “Japanese Juan Soto” or a fourth outfielder, depending on who you ask. He’s either “the best Japanese hitter since Ichiro Suzuki” or not good enough to rank in Keith Law’s top 50 free agents. He’s a player who the Red Sox tracked for several years and aggressively signed on the first day he was officially posted. He’s a player who many rival executives view was worth less than half of the contract he ultimately received. It’s always difficult to predict how foreign-born players will adjust to the big leagues, but Yoshida’s unique profile has made said projection downright impossible.
The one consensus among evaluators is that Yoshida can hit. Like, really, really hit. His bat-to-ball skills are truly otherworldly, with Nippon Professional League stats almost too good to believe. Over the last three seasons, Yoshida has walked 213 times and struck out just 97 times. That kind of skill will play in any league, and with a batting average nearly .300 against fastballs 95 miles per hour or above, it’s highly unlikely he will be overmatched by MLB pitching.
Yoshida also generates more power than you would expect from a 5’9 hitter, but it stands to question how that power will translate to the big leagues. There have been a number of Japanese hitters who have seen their power disappear upon their arrival in the United States, in large part due to the larger ballparks and better pitching. The most notable example is Shogo Akiyama, who failed to hit a single home run in two seasons with the Reds after hitting 69 in his final three years in Japan.
The Red Sox, however, have expressed optimism that Yoshida will be able to bring some of his 20+ home run power to America due to the compactness of his swing. Indeed, Yoshida has a more American-style swing as opposed to Akiyama, who can best be described as a slap hitter. He may never top the 29 home runs he totaled in 2016, but somewhere in the 10-15 range seems reasonable this year.
By all accounts, Yoshida is a below-average fielder and has little-to-no speed. And while the Red Sox will be able to mask those deficiencies by playing him in the front of the Monster, it seems to be a given that Yoshida will make minimal contributions in those two areas. Yet the Red Sox didn’t pay the Japanese import to be the second coming of Ricky Henderson: They paid him to be one of the best leadoff hitters in the game. With the newly implemented shift ban coming to the MLB in 2023, the ability to put the ball in play is more important than it has been in years, and Yoshida should be able to take full advantage.
Stat Predictions: 147 games .288/.371/.436 14 HR 52 RBI 2.2 WAR
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