What to do with Tanner Houck? In many ways, it’s a tremendous problem to have: A lot of teams would love to have a controllable young pitcher who can be either a mid-rotation starter or a late-inning reliever, depending on what your team needs. With the Red Sox addressing their bullpen and moving Whitlock to the rotation to join the returning Sale and Paxton, Houck is left in limbo right now. Therefore, today, we’re going to take a look at what role Houck should have moving forward and what a reasonable 2023 projection looks like for the big right-hander.
Over the last three seasons, we have collected 53 games and 129 innings of data on Tanner Houck, and the results are clear: He is a really good pitcher. He has a fantastic 3.02 ERA, has struck out over 10 batters per nine innings, and has a digestible 3.2 BB/9. His slider is legitimately disgusting, holding batters to a .159 batting average and 37.3% whiff percentage. That slider has proved especially lethal against righties, as Houck held same-side hitters to a .205/.269/.227 slashline in large part due to his breaking ball.
I have confidence that Houck can succeed as a starter and a reliever, but there are a few reasons why I think he is more suited to a relief role. For one, his lack of a third pitch leads to a pretty drastic platoon split:
Vs Righties: .205/.269/.227
Vs Lefties: .259/.376/.400
In a relief role, Alex Cora can mitigate this deficiency by using Houck in situations where the opposing lineup has right-handed batters due up. Yet if Houck is used as a starter, an opposing manager can stack his lineup with left-handed hitters and feel pretty good about his chances.
Another reason Houck should be used as a reliever is his struggles to work deep into games. Houck holds batters to a .504 OPS the first time through the order, but that increases to .647 the second time through and balloons to 1.017 the third time up. In addition, Houck has never topped 100 pitches in any of his MLB appearances and rarely tops even 75 pitches, meaning that, with his lack of control, he is likely to only pitch about five innings a start. If you can’t face a lineup a third time, can’t work deep into games, and can’t get lefties out, you probably shouldn’t be a starter.
With the recent trade of Matt Barnes, it looks like the Red Sox agree with me and will use Houck in a long or middle relief role. It was a role Houck succeeded in last year, and with the Red Sox rotations filled with guys either with massive injury risks or innings limit, Houck can be the perfect bridge from said starters to the reworked back end of the bullpen. I fully expect Houck to play a critical role on this team.
Stats: 3.46 ERA 82 IP 3.6 BB/9 10.3 K/9
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