Zack Kelly is just one of those guys you root for. An undrafted free agent out of Division II Newberry College, Kelly bounced around the minor leagues before succumbing to Tommy John Surgery in 2020. The Red Sox saw something in him to sign him as a minor league free agent that winter, and, after almost two years of stellar performance in the higher minors, gave him the call to the majors. It may have just been a month of meaningless baseball, but Kelly impressed, pitching to a 3.95 ERA with an excellent walk rate.
A lot of Red Sox fans are high on Kelly and are understandably rooting for him to make the Opening Day roster, but I just don’t see a place for him on this current Red Sox team barring injury. He has a very good changeup, but according to Soxprospects, he has below-average command of his fastball, and his third pitch, a cutter/slider hybrid, only has the potential to be average. He keeps the ball on the ground but struggles to generate swings-and-misses (7.2 K/9), which puts a limit on his ceiling. The margin for error is extremely small with Kelly, especially considering he has had his struggles with control in the minors, and the upside only appears to be a sixth or seventh inning arm.
Inning for inning, Kelly is probably better than Kutter Crawford, but considering Crawford has multi-inning potential, he’ll probably get the first crack at the majors. Kelly should be one of the first options when the inevitable injury bug bites, although it likely won’t be in any sort of high-leverage role given how the Red Sox have built up their relief core this offseason. On the other hand, Kelly wasn’t expected to get this far, so maybe he shocks everyone again and establishes himself as a key relief arm out of nowhere a la 2022 John Schrieber. I’m sure we’d all be fine with that.
Predictions: 4.22 ERA 26 IP 3.4 BB/9 7.8 K/9
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