If there’s one thing, we know about Resse Mcguire, it’s that the Red Sox management absolutely loves him. They felt comfortable enough in his abilities to trade fan-favorite Christian Vazquez at the trade deadline and bring in him to start the majority of the games down the stretch. They had enough confidence in him to make no attempt to re-sign Vazquez, or any other premier free agent catcher, this offseason and let him handle the majority of the backstop duties in 2023. That's a pretty impressive feat for a guy who made only 141 appearances in four seasons entering 2022.
So what do the Red Sox love about him? To be honest, it’s hard to say. I’m definitely more of a fan of his defense than his offense, because even though Statcast has him around average as a framer and a thrower, Fangraphs has him at 23.1 defensive runs above average over the last two seasons, which is pretty remarkable considering he’s only played 167 games over those seasons. Defensive metrics are always a little wonky, but I think it’s fair to say that Mcguire is an average to above-average defender, and all indications are that pitchers like throwing to him. Given the state of catcher offense around the majors and the vast impact a catcher can make on a pitching staff, being a plus defender should earn Mcguire at-bats no matter how productive his offense is.
That offense, however, is the biggest point of controversy in Mcguire’s game. A career .248/.297/.390 hitter in 141 games over four seasons entering 2022, Mcguire posted a surprising .337/.377/.500 slash line over 36 games with the Red Sox. Old-school fans love him because of his all-field approach and high batting average. I’m…. a little more skeptical. There is nothing in his advanced metrics to suggest that success is sustainable. His expected batting average of .233 and slugging percentage of .326 (based on his quality of contact) were well below his season totals. Given that he doesn’t walk or hit for power, his offensive value is entirely dependent on his hit tool. With an average exit velocity that would have ranked 213th out of 252 qualified hitters, it’s hard to see how he can come anywhere near repeating his 2022 offensive production.
Then again, any offensive production from Mcguire would be an added bonus rather than a necessity. There’s only a handful of catchers around the league who are above-average at the plate and in the field, so as long as Mcguire continues to be a good defender, the Red Sox will keep giving him chances. As for offense, I expect some regression closer to his .256/.301/.380 career slash line, and possibly a little higher given how his ground ball tendencies will complement the banning of the shift, but nowhere close to his final two months of the 2022 season.
Stat Predictions: .264/.318/.382 103 games 4 HR 42 RBI 1.3 WAR
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